In the weeks since Donald Trump threatened Canada with “economic force”, Canadians have bought local, cancelled US travel and elevated the odd elbow. Some of us admire Trump, but not many, and fewer each week. There is near consensus we should not become the 51st state. The Premiers now say all the right things about breaking down interprovincial trade barriers. We seem unified.
A few months ago, the context for the 2025 election seemed more like that of 1993: an unpopular government replaced its leader; interest rates throttled the economy; and Wayne Gretzky wasn’t endearing himself to Leafs fans. The other crucial similarity – and the real hallmark of the early ’90s – is a deeply divided electorate. Will the 2025 election and emerging issues paper over those divisions, worsen them, or see us move past them?
As ever, some of these divisions are regional.
The “sovereigntist” Parti Québecois re-emerged in 2024 as a force in Quebec politics. While not the choice of the majority of voters there, support for the PQ in recent polls would give them a reasonable chance at a majority of seats in the Assembly if a vote were held today.
Meanwhile, Saskatchewan’s Premier has been outspoken about Western alienation and Alberta’s Premier has gone further to talk of a potential “national unity crisis”.
These fault lines reflect questions of politics and identity as well as policy and economics. More of Canada’s business leaders have been vocal recently about the need for change in Ottawa and pro-growth policies. Many but by no means all are in the Western-based resources sector. Yet they are speaking out in the context of declining trust in business and our economic system.
Ian McGugan used stark terms in The Globe & Mail last year to describe the dissatisfaction young North Americans were reporting in tracking surveys. He said they were “likely to demand radical change if the current intergenerational happiness gap continues.” It is unlikely this cohort would not question current systems around finance, real estate or competition.
These tensions may not impact the election quite as they did in ’93. Yet the voices behind them may speak out more forcefully before it is through. Liberals must know their renewed fortune has sharpened the urgency among those counting on a change in government.
So, the irony of this election is that despite a unifying consensus against a singular threat from the south, reconciling other divisive issues – or not favouring some at the expense of others – is a major challenge for the next government.
Major policy dilemmas hang over housing, food and energy costs, foreign workers, post-secondary education, environmental regulation, corporate taxes and competitiveness. It will be important for those in certain business sectors to understand whether concern about those issues can be mediated or decline over time. Public sentiment will impact government decision-making and consumer decisions.
Politics in 2025 has defied expectations – and it’s only April. Yet to be determined is how unity as well as division will impact the way we address Canada’s challenges.
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