This election is shaping up to be a confrontation between two groups who live on very different planets, even if they’re in the same country.
In one corner are younger, more frustrated, Canadians – often male – who either don’t own homes, or can barely afford their mortgages. They’re looking for a change-oriented fighter in Pierre Poilievre. In the other corner are home-owning baby boomer institutionalists, fearful of Trump’s provocations and craving Carney’s experience and moderation. The first group thinks Canada is, in fact, broken and they want serious change to bring them cost-of-living relief. The second group bristles at Poilievre’s assertive style and think anything that isn’t related to Trump is a distraction.
Initially, each leader was solidifying its group. Indeed, both parties have strong incentives to try to drive up turn-out amongst their coalitions by feeding them the red meat they crave. But this week also showed that both Carney and Poilievre need to demonstrate some legitimacy outside of their comfort zones. Whether new policy on housing for Carney, or a Canada/US relations-focused speech from Poilievre, each campaign clearly understands that while some voters are myopic, others need reassurance on issues that aren’t their primary vote driver.
I haven’t mentioned the NDP or the Bloc Quebecois yet, have I? Well, that’s because as of today, this election is a two-way race. Indeed, the collapse of the third and fourth parties goes a long way to explaining the Liberal resurgence. The efficient vote dynamic caused by NDP collapse means that even polls that show the Liberals and Conservatives in a statistical tie project a seat count that could give the Liberals a majority.
So, if the Conservatives are hitting a popular vote high-water mark and they can’t impact how well or poorly the NDP and the Bloc perform, what can they do to try to eke out a victory? Well, some watchers are theorizing that if Conservatives can turn out more historic non-voters (that is, voters who didn’t vote in the last election), they could set themselves up for a spoiler on election night. My own experience on Pierre Poilievre’s leadership campaign gives me reason to think the leader does have a knack for turning out the more democratically marginalized among us. Can he do it in a general election campaign? We’ll need to wait 24 days to find out. What seems certain is that whichever party forms government after April 28th will have its work cut out for it trying to bridge the divide between two very different types of Canadians.
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