As the runway to Australia’s next Federal election becomes shorter, the next two weekends see millions of Australians go to the polls in a series of local and provincial elections which will give some indication of the national political mood.
This Saturday we will see three by-elections in our largest state NSW and a general election in the Australian Capital Territory. The following weekend the Queensland general election will be held – all ahead of the US presidential election in less than three weeks’ time.
In NSW, the by-elections for the seat of Hornsby, previously held by NSW Liberal Treasurer, Matt Kean (now Anthony Albanese’s climate tzar) and Epping, previously held by former Premier Dominic Perrottet (BHP’s whisperer in Washington DC), will be held by the Liberal candidates.
Those seats are seen staying in the Liberal fold, but that may not be the case in the seat of Pittwater where there’s a tight contest between teal independent Jacqui Scruby and former Northern Beaches Deputy Mayor and Liberal candidate, Georgia Ryburn. Competing in the birthplace of the teal movement in Australia, both candidates are leaning heavily on the parochial argument of who is more local to the insular peninsula. If elected, Scruby would be the first teal elected to the NSW Parliament and would signal the Liberals will continue to struggle against teal candidates at the federal election due to be held next year.
Getting a broader readout from the byelections will be difficult with Labor not fielding candidates in any of the seats.
That won’t be the case in the ACT, where all major parties are having a go – but the chances of Libs breaking the Labor stronghold are close to zero. If anyone were to do that it would be the Greens and some other left-leaners, but that is also unlikely in a jurisdiction Labor has governed for 23 years and where the party holds all three seats in the Federal Parliament.
So, pundits will turn to Queensland for some more readable tealeaves. After 10 years of Labor, the Liberal National Party are on course to win a strong majority with bookies offering returns for the LNP which are lower than the average interest rate on a savings account. LNP leader David Crisafulli seems to have adopted Albanese’s tactics from the last federal election of running a small target campaign with minimal policy announcements while banking on voter dissatisfaction with the incumbents. However, Crisafulli may have not learned the other lesson from that strategy; if you run with a limited policy platform you don’t have a mandate for major policy initiatives.
Queensland will be a key state in next year’s Federal poll. The velocity with which the baseball bats are swung next week will be a pointer to the mood locals will take to that election.