May 19th Newsletter Round-Up

May 19, 2023


Highlights from Crestview Strategy’s weekly newsletters:


Polling Round-Up   

Aggregate polling suggests the UCP lead with 50% of the popular vote projection with the NDP at 44%. Despite this increase for the UCP, the election still remains extremely close. Abacus Data suggests the NDP lead with a vote intention of 43% with the UCP at 35%.

Leger polling reports that 37% of Albertans tend to regard Notley as being honest compared to 23% seeing the Smith possessing the quality.  37% of see Notley as trustworthy compared to 31% for Smith. The caps continue to grow in relation to who is a better communicator with 40% favouring Notley compared to 26% for Smith. With regard to the central question of who can best represent Albertans 37% versus 31% turn to Notley over Smith.

Atlantic Canada

Delegations from Atlantic Canada were in the Netherlands last week participating in the World Hydrogen Summit. Among the highlights, Premier Blaine Higgs shared New Brunswick’s energy vision and promoted the province as a rising global energy leader, in partnership with the Port of Belledune. Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Andrew Furey announced an MOU between the province and the Port of Rotterdam to encourage the establishment of hydrogen supply chains. And the Qalipu First Nation announced it has entered into a partnership with a trade school in the Netherlands that specializes in offshore energy, particularly wind, to train band members for green energy jobs.

British Columbia

Former BC NDP MLA Harry Lali Joins BC United 

Former long-time BC NDP MLA and former 1990s NDP transportation minister Harry Lali has joined BC United. Lali was kicked out of the BC NDP in 2020 for allegedly undermining nomination opponent Aaron Sumexheltza, who now serves as the BC NDP’s president. In a scathing letter, Lali says the BC NDP have become an “urban-interest party” with “little to no interest in the issues and challenges facing small communities,” such as Lali’s former riding of Fraser—Nicola. BC United Leader Kevin Falcon said he welcomed Lali into the party but that there is no plan for him to run in the next provincial election.

BC United Names Candidate in Langford—Juan de Fuca 

BC United has appointed Children’s Autism Federation of BC co-founder Elena Lawson as their candidate for the upcoming Langford—Juan de Fuca byelection, the riding of former Premier John Horgan and a BC NDP stronghold under his leadership. Lawson became an outspoken opponent and media presence on the BC NDP’s proposed changes to autism funding, fighting – and winning – a reversal of the policy. She will face NDP candidate, Sooke School Board chair, and John Horgan’s personal friend Ravi Parmar. The BC Greens have nominated Camille Currie, who founded BC Health Care Matters, a group advocating for more family doctors. The byelection date has not yet been called, but it must be by September 30, 2023.


The province is supporting the construction of approximately 18,350 homes in the City of Mississauga. The supports are targeting the housing supply crisis in Ontario by ensuring that growth is oriented toward investments in transit-related infrastructure, which includes a host of additional community benefits to be paid for by home builders such as: a waste-water treatment plant; new transit services; new schools, as well as improved community spaces.

The government is providing $1.5 million to not-for-profit organizations to develop educational resources for the purposes of raising accessibility awareness and benefits across the province. The funding will be provided through the government’s EnAbling Change Program, adding to eight ongoing projects funded by the programme.


Four federal byelections will be held on June 19

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced Sunday that four byelections will take place on June 19. The byelections will be held to replace three retiring MPs, including former Liberal cabinet minister Marc Garneau (Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount, in Quebec), Conservative MP Dave MacKenzie (Oxford, in Ontario) and former Conservative interim leader Candice Bergen (Portage–Lisgar, in Manitoba). A race will also be held to fill a Manitoba seat left vacant by the death of former Liberal cabinet minister Jim Carr in Winnipeg South Centre. All four seats are generally considered safe districts for the parties who most recently held them.


As of the May 12 nomination deadline, 102 candidates have registered to participate in the race marking the highest number of candidates ever registered for mayor of the amalgamated City of Toronto. This record surpassed the previous of 65 candidates in the 2014 municipal election.

Despite some discrepancies in polling, Oliva Chow remains a dominant force in the mayoral race and is expected to capture more than 30% of the vote. According to the latest Mainstreet poll, Ana Bailão holds the second-greatest amount of support at 15%, followed by Mark Saunders and Josh Matlow. Meanwhile, Forum polling still places Chow in the lead, with Josh Matlow and Mark Saunders tied for second place and Ana Bailão in fourth place with only 7% of the vote.

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