Queenslanders have elected a conservative government for only the second time in 30 years, in a result that brings significant change in the state’s political landscape but few clear implications for the Federal poll due in 6 months.
The Liberal National Party (LNP) is projected to secure approximately 50 of the 93 seats in the Queensland Parliament, a result that, while a clear victory, fell short of the 60 seats many had anticipated at the campaign’s outset.
This election might reflect a broader trend across Australia, with the LNP’s win in Queensland following a more decisive conservative victory in Northern Territory two months ago, and a minority conservative government clinging to power in Tasmania in March. Labor continues to govern in the rest of the country, including New South Wales, South Australia, Victoria, and Western Australia, but with Federal polls tightening this election will be considered a weathervane for Coalition gains in the national election.
In the unlikely event that the 7% statewide swing against Labor on the weekend was replicated nationally Anthony Albanese would be swept from power and Peter Dutton would become Prime Minister.
Queensland, known for its coastal tourism, rainforests, and the Great Barrier Reef along with the cattle ranches, coal mines and gas fields that underpin its strong economy, is set to gain international attention as Brisbane prepares to host the Summer Olympic Games in 2032. This upcoming event adds complexity to the political landscape, as the new government will need to address infrastructure and economic challenges associated with the Games.
Despite the electoral setback, Labor’s performance under the leadership of Steven Miles—who has been Premier for just seven months—was not as catastrophic as some forecasts suggested. The party managed to limit its losses, securing around 35 seats, and establishing a foundation for a potential comeback in the next election cycle in 2028. This resilience is particularly noteworthy given Labor’s historical dominance, having ruled Queensland for 26 of the last 30 years.
The campaign strategies employed by both parties significantly influenced the election outcome. Labor’s series of populist cost-of-living measures and a scare campaign regarding abortion rights saw the party’s vote hold up in Brisbane, even as it tanked in regional areas. A smart largely union-funded campaign contrasted sharply with the LNP’s more cautious approach under now Premier David Crisafulli. Jamie Walker in The Australian noted that Crisafulli’s “small target strategy” failed to resonate with voters, resulting in a precarious situation for the LNP as momentum shifted back toward Labor.
The approach of Crisafulli was similar to that Albanese took to the last Federal election but contrasts the more robust agenda Dutton has pushed as Federal Opposition leader.
On the federal front, the implications of this election are mixed. Labor currently holds only five of Queensland’s 30 federal seats, and with Queenslander Dutton leading the Coalition, there are concerns about further losses in the Sunshine State. However, the 7% swing to the LNP in this election may only result in the loss of one Federal seat, Blair, near the Gold Coast, indicating that the federal landscape may not shift as dramatically as some had feared. Moreover, the decline in Green votes—down to 8% from 10% in the previous election—presents an opportunity for Labor to reclaim several inner-city seats lost in 2022.
As Queenslanders turn their attention to their new Premier, and given his campaign gave few clues, the pressing question remains: “What are you going to do now?”
With critical issues such as state debt, energy policy, and preparations for the Olympics looming large, expectations are high for Crisafulli and his government to move quickly to articulate a clearer vision and actionable plans.