Canada Votes — Analysis on Week Four

There is an old axiom about elections in Canada. Long weekends are decision weekends. The axiom goes like this…

Long weekends are occasions where families meet for extended time together. A dinner that goes for an extra hour. A visit that lingers a little more than normal. And once every conceivable topic has been exhausted and there is nothing further to catch up on or reminisce about, the conversation finally turns to that one topic that most families try to avoid: politics.

What is it that will focus the family conversation? Which party has the better financial model or costings? Who has the most robust solutions for a post Bretton Woods global economy?  Maybe who is going to do the best job with dealing with productivity gap in Canada. Of course, all of this is very unlikely. Instead, the conversation will likely start with a conversation about the President of the United States.

On November 5 you could have predicted that this would be a part of the conversation. But no one could have predicted exactly how dominant this conversation has become during this election. No matter which public opinion poll you believe is “most accurate” every pollster has the management of the relationship with the United States as either the first or the second most important issue on the minds of Canadians.

The other top issue is the question of affordability or, to borrow a term from south of the border (and taking some liberties with their usage), the Abundance Agenda.  The debate between legislation/regulation and a growth agenda. Climate versus extractive industries. NIMBY vs YIMBY.

The relative emphasis and conclusions on these two major points are where this family conversation will go and it will go there quite naturally as if by accident. These are the big questions in this election in Canada. The first big question election since 1988. These questions almost perfectly bifurcate the country. First, which of these is the most important of the questions. Secondly, which party/leader has the best answers to these questions.

Families come in all shapes and sizes and every family will have a somewhat unique perspective on the answers based on demographic and psychographic variables or states and traits. Age. Gender. Socio-economic status.

Or, to look at this from a slightly different perspective, those who believe in the need for stabilization and those who are advocates for change. Though framed in different language these are the conversations that will occur and be litigated this weekend in many households in Canada.

Pollsters are telling us that public opinion has been consistent throughout this campaign. The lead for the Liberal Party is fixed somewhere around five percent. The undecideds are, in fact, decided. Absent a pivotal moment from the national leaders’ debates, the only thing left to happen is for people to vote, for those votes to be tallied, the seats allocated and a new government to be sworn in.

This may be true. But Canadian electoral history has shown us that these breaks occur less frequently around a pivotal “moment” but like in 1968, 1979, 1988, 2005-2006 and 2015, this break in the national mood is more likely to occur around the family dinner table over a long weekend.

Irrespective, I suspect that this weekend, when finished discussing which Canadian hockey team is most likely to win the Stanley Cup (Ottawa Senators) and the conversation turns to the election it will be then and there that this election is actually decided.